Election Eve: Looking Ahead at Post-Election Northern Ontario – by Livio Di Matteo (October 4, 2011)

Livio Di Matteo is Professor of Economics at Lakehead University in Thunder Bay, Ontario. Visit his new Economics Blog “Northern Economist” at http://ldimatte.shawwebspace.ca/

The time has comes to take stock of the implications for the North of the potential outcomes of the October 6th provincial election. According to the polls, it is a close race and the possibility of a minority government is high.  At the same time, polls do not always fully predict the outcome and much depends on the concentration of party support across the various ridings, as well as the actual voter turnout.  What can we expect the morning after?

Whatever party forms the government, expect to see the donning of sackcloth and ashes as it suddenly becomes apparent that the economy is on the verge of recession, the stock markets have dropped 20 percent and the province’s coffers are bare as a result of a massive deficit.  All those rosy revenue forecasts that were going to see the budget balanced by 2017 will now go out the window.  Expect to see announcements of government expenditure cuts, freezes and restructuring as well as the discussion of temporary “revenue enhancements.” A Liberal or NDP backed government will likely favor revenue enhancements over expenditure cuts while a Conservative government is more likely to favor cuts or restructuring.

Should the Liberals win another majority, it will be interpreted as a vindication for their program of policies, especially their job creation strategy focused on Green Energy.  As for the North, it means the Far North Act will stay in place.  For the North, a Liberal majority win will put it in an odd situation. 

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Rails to the Ring of Fire – Stan Sudol (Toronto Star – May 30, 2011)

The Toronto Star, has the largest circulation in Canada. The paper has an enormous impact on federal and Ontario politics as well as shaping public opinion.

For the web’s largest database of articles on the Ring of Fire mining camp, please go to: Ontario’s Ring of Fire Mineral Discovery

“The Ring of Fire railroad should be subsidized by
governments as the huge economic impact will benefit
the economy for decades to come, help balance budgets
and alleviate aboriginal poverty in the surrounding
First Nations communities.” (Stan Sudol)

Notwithstanding the recent correction in commodity prices, near-record highs for gold, silver and a host of base metals essential for industry confirm that the commodity “supercycle” is back and with a vengeance.

China, India, Brazil and many other developing economies are continuing their rapid pace of growth. In 2010, China overtook Japan to become the world’s second largest economy and surpassed the United States to become the biggest producer of cars.

In March, Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney remarked: “Commodity markets are in the midst of a supercycle. . . . Rapid urbanization underpins this growth. . . . Even though history teaches that all booms are finite, this one could go on for some time.”

Quebec’s visionary 25-year “Plan Nord” will see billions invested in northern resource development and infrastructure to take advantage of the tsunami in global metal demand and generate much needed revenue for government programs.

In Ontario, the isolated Ring of Fire mining camp in the James Bay lowlands is one of the most exciting and possibly the richest new Canadian mineral discovery in more than a generation. It has been compared with both the Sudbury Basin and the Abitibi Greenstone belt that includes Timmins, Kirkland Lake, Noranda and Val d’Or.

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Seize [Ontario] North’s destiny – by Mike Whitehouse (Sudbury Star – September 29, 2011)

The Sudbury Star is the City of Greater Sudbury’s daily newspaper.

Canada and Ontario badly need Northern Ontario to succeed, North Bay Mayor Al McDonald says, and the North desperately needs leaders and leadership.

McDonald addressed City of Greater Sudbury council last night with an appeal to strike an accord of northern communities to promote common regional goals and interests.

The North is hampered by two syndromes, he said. First, cities and towns in the North are still dependent on handouts from provincial and federal governments — and, often, industries — for the most basic of needs. In this way, northern destinies are still controlled in Toronto and Ottawa, he said.

Second, Northern Ontario communities and businesses are competing in a global marketplace and not doing so together is disadvantaging all of them, he said. “We need a plan and a vision for Northern Ontario and we need it to be comprehensive and inclusive,” he said.

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Anti-scab law touted [by Sudbury NDP candidate] – by Laura Stricker (Sudbury Star – September 29, 2011)

The Sudbury Star is the City of Greater Sudbury’s daily newspaper.

The NDP will continue the fight to ban replacement workers during strikes and lockouts, Paul Loewenberg says. The NDP candidate for Sudbury spent an hour answering reader questions Wednesday afternoon in an electronic town hall.

“We are the only party in Ontario that has ever passed anti-replacement worker legislation and it is important that we bring it back,” he said. In April, Nickel Belt MPP France Gelinas’ bill to ban replacement workers died on the second reading.

Loewenberg also fielded questions about student debt, jobs, health care and the LHINs (local health integration networks).

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New mines, new revenue for [Ontario] cities: Horwath – by Carol Mulligan (Sudbury Star – September 29, 2011)

The Sudbury Star is the City of Greater Sudbury’s daily newspaper.

“This is how (former Newfoundland premier) Danny Williams,
in fact Brian Tobin, even stood up for minerals and made
sure some of that processing was happening in their
jurisdiction. And I think that we can do that here in
Ontario.” (NDP Leader, Andrea Horwath)

If elected, the Ontario New Democrats promise to funnel taxes from new mines to the communities in which they are located.

As much as it would like to give a greater share of taxes from existing mines to their home communities, the NDP could not do it while working to balance the provincial budget by 2017-18, says Andrea Horwath.

The NDP wanted a policy on mines that would be “easily implementable,” said Horwath, and moves “immediately” toward sharing greater revenues from mining with municipalities.

Horwath spoke to The Sudbury Star via Skype on Wednesday afternoon from her campaign bus, while en route from Brampton to Hamilton. “We are facing, and everybody knows it, a bit of a challenge,” said Horwarth about the province’s $14-billion deficit.

“I would have liked to be able to change the existing mining taxes,” but it won’t be possible, she said. When asked if the New Democrats would return more mining revenue to communities when the budget is balanced, Horwath said the NDP would consider it.

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Growth plan to include all of Northeast – by Wayne Snider (Timmins Daily Press – September 27, 2011)

 The Daily Press, the city of Timmins newspaper. Contact the writer at news@thedailypress.ca.

Northeastern Ontario Municipal Association (NEOMA) representatives provide input into pilot project

COCHRANE — The two urban centres targeted by the provincial government to pilot the Northern Growth Plan are making a concentrated effort to include all areas of their regions in the project.

The government selected Thunder Bay and Sudbury to begin the plan. Both groups are including input from Northwestern and Northeastern Ontario communities respectively for a broader based plan.

Sylvia Barnard, president of Cambrian College, was at Saturday’s meeting of the Northeastern Ontario Municipal Association (NEOMA) in Cochrane. Her discussions with NEOMA was just one of a series of meetings with regional groups to get input to define a model for Regional Economic Development Areas (REDAs).

“When we heard from sister communities, the feeling was ‘here we go again, Sudbury gets everything,'” Barnard explained. “But we wanted to see consultation from across Northeastern Ontario from people involved in economic development.”

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Northern [Ontario] leaders are determined to be heard – by Wayne Snider (Timmins Daily Press – September 27, 2011)

 The Daily Press, the city of Timmins newspaper. Contact the writer at news@thedailypress.ca.

“The North has the potential to be one of the wealthiest
regions in the world. Yet we are not permitted to realize
the full benefits of our natural resources — while the
federal and provincial government rake in big time tax
revenues. (Wayne Snider – Timmins Daily Press)

Tired of being ignored by provincial politicians

Municipal leaders in Northeastern Ontario are hungry for political change at the provincial level. But the change they desire is over and above what happens in the Oct. 6 election.

They want the North to be taken seriously in Queen’s Park. It is a tall order, given the fact that only 11 of the 107 seats in the provincial legislature are based in Northern ridings. In terms of voting support, which is what political parties really care about, the North isn’t a significant player at the provincial level.

That is why policies — such as the Far North Act and the Endangered Species Act — get pushed through despite vocal protests from Northern municipalities. Both of these acts will limit economic growth in the North.

In the case of the Endangered Species Act, specifically the protection of caribou habitat in areas where the animals haven’t been seen for 60-80 years, it will mean economic regression for the forest industry.

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Voice for the North [Ontario]: NEOMA forming professional lobby group – by Wayne Snider (Timmins Daily Press – September 26, 2011)

 The Daily Press is the city of Timmins newspaper.

COCHRANE — Tired of southern-based special interest groups influencing provincial legislation that impacts the North, municipal leaders are prepared to fight back.

Members of the Northeastern Ontario Municipal Association (NEOMA) are gearing up to create a professional lobbying effort to represent their interests.

Saturday, at NEOMA’s meeting held at Cochrane’s Tim Horton Event Centre, political leaders voted to establish a subcommittee to set up a framework for the lobby effort. It will report back to the group by early January, in time for member municipalities to support the effort in their 2012 budgets.

“I am happy that we are actually rolling up our sleeves and getting active on this issue,” Cochrane Mayor Peter Politis told The Daily Press after the meeting. “I know we’ve been talking for a long time about not having a value (to the Northern perspective) in the legislature.

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Bright future for mining [Northern Ontario] – by Harold Carmichael (Sudbury Star – September 24, 2011)

The Sudbury Star is the City of Greater Sudbury’s daily newspaper. hcarmichael@thesudburystar.com

For the web’s largest database of articles on the Ring of Fire mining camp, please go to: Ontario’s Ring of Fire Mineral Discovery

“Mining is on the agendas … But, that’s because the southern
Ontario manufacturing economy is in serious trouble. While our
major customer (the United States) will probably be going through
a most troubling economic time the next decade or so, the only part
of the Ontario economy that is doing well is the mining sector.”

Sudol said not having a low-enough electricity rate could be the
deal breaker for Cliffs Natural Resources locating its proposed
chromite processing plant in Ontario. “Right now, power rates in
Manitoba and Quebec are 40- 60% lower than Ontario … There’s no
way they are going to locate that refinery in Ontario.” (Mining
strategist Stan Sudol – RepublicOfMining.com)

AT ISSUE: What is the vision for mining in Greater Sudbury and Northern Ontario?

Chris Hodgson has good reason to believe things are looking up — way up — for Ontario’s mining sector. That’s primarily because the Ontario Mining Association’s recent vision paper and its 10 recommendations about what the mining sector wants addressed by the province is getting serious attention in the Ontario election.

“It’s a big difference,” he said. “In the late 1990s, it was a sunset industry. Now, it may be the key to getting us out of the hole financially.”

A former minister of Northern Development and Mines in the Mike Harris Progressive Conservative government from 1995-99, Hodgson has been president of the OMA for seven years. The association has 70 members who operate 40 mines and employ 20,000 people.

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Hudak, Horwath scold McGuinty for missing [Northern Ontario] debate – by Rob Ferguson (Toronto Star – September 24, 2011)

The Toronto Star, has the largest circulation in Canada. The paper has an enormous impact on federal and Ontario politics as well as shaping public opinion.

THUNDER BAY—He skipped the debate on northern Ontario issues, but Liberal Leader Dalton McGuinty was far from forgotten as his main rivals for the premier’s job took him — and each other — to task.

So did local farmer Peter Lang, who showed up with a hen named Henrietta and a sign reading, “Dalton’s chicken!” as NDP Leader Andrea Horwath arrived at the event hosted by the Northern Ontario Municipal Association.

To the chagrin of New Democrats and Progressive Conservatives, there was not an empty podium on stage in an airport hotel to symbolize the absent McGuinty, who was campaigning in the GTA while his challengers were quizzed on boosting the northern economy if they win the Oct. 6 vote. “We’d love to have an empty chair,” said one Tory strategist, adding the municipal association wanted to avoid controversy.

With the Liberals holding all but three ridings in northern Ontario, McGuinty’s decision to stay away showed northerners they should feel his government is “taking them for granted,” said Horwath.

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The Ontario campaign begins today [Northern debate] – by Martine Regg Cohn (Toronto Star – September 24, 2011)

The Toronto Star, has the largest circulation in Canada. The paper has an enormous impact on federal and Ontario politics as well as shaping public opinion.

Here’s something you may not have heard before: An Ontario election is underway. And it starts in earnest today.

Until now, the campaign has barely cracked the front pages. Since the writ was dropped 2 ½ weeks ago, almost nothing has happened — and yet everything has happened. Now, the race is being turned upside down.

The Forum poll published in today’s Star shows that as voters belatedly start to focus on the campaign, a longstanding Tory lead has dissolved. We’re headed for a photo finish — with the NDP holding the balance of power (but holding a lot less of it than many had thought).

For the next 12 days, brace yourself for one of the closest elections in recent Ontario history. And the possibility of regime change. The drama comes not merely from the horse race. It’s about who takes the reins of power after Oct. 6 and which direction they take us in the next day.

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Forestry seen as key issue in Ontario election – Special to The Chronicle-Journal (September 23, 2011)

The Thunder Bay Chronicle-Journal is the daily newspaper of Northwestern Ontario.

The three sitting political parties at Queen’s Park are weighing in on a key election issue in Northwestern Ontario, the forestry sector.

In July, the Ontario Forest Industries Association, the Northwestern Ontario Associated Chambers of Commerce, the Northwestern Ontario Municipal Association and the Federation of Northern Ontario Municipalities developed a series of questions for the Liberals, NDP and Tories to answer on forestry policies.

The responses were released on Thursday.

“We’re very pleased that all three parties took the time and effort to respond,” said Scott Jackson, manager of forest policy with the Ontario Forest Industries Association. “It’s very clear that forestry is a key issue going into this election, and rightfully so.”

The questions addressed timber production, the Endangered Species Act, the caribou conservation plan, the Ontario Forest Tenure Modernization Act, road construction and maintenance, and electricity rates.

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Threatened [caribou] species – by Ron Grech (Timmins Daily Press – September 23, 2011)

Ron Grech is a reporter for The Daily Press, the city of Timmins newspaper. Contact the writer at  rgrech@thedailypress.ca

Local Liberal candidate stands by government’s commitment to caribou conservation

Mill closures and job losses will be the price for the province’s caribou conservation plan, says sawmill owner John Kapel.

It’s a major concern,” said Kapel, owner of Little John Enterprises in Timmins. “They’re going to be losing just in the Abitibi River Forest 65% reduction in some years which is a huge drastic volume. There will be mills closing, the way I see it. It’s a very serious issue.”

Two weeks ago, Northeastern mayors held a joint press conference in Timmins expressing alarm over a plan to reduce available harvestable land on the Abitibi River forest by 25% immediately and 65% after 20 years.

The Ontario Forest Industries Association has confirmed there are other forests similarly affected. The latest Kenogami forest management unit near Nipigon is looking at a 21% reduction in wood volumes. Lac-Seul forest management unit, located in the Sioux Lookout area in Northwestern Ontario, has a 22% reduction in amount of land available to access wood.

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Caribou and forestry can co-exist – by Avrim Lazar and Richard Brooks (Sudbury Star – September 23, 2011)

The Sudbury Star is the City of Greater Sudbury’s daily newspaper.

Avrim Lazar is president and CEO of the Forest Products Association of Canada and Richard Brooks is Forests Campaign Co-ordinator for Greenpeace.

As we move into the home stretch of the Ontario election race, it’s a good time to consider the health of our forests and the future of an industry that has fuelled Canada’s growth since the early days of European settlement.

Throughout Ontario, the forest industry and northern communities recently have been through tough times. Markets have changed, global competition has increased, mills have closed and many jobs have been lost.

Meanwhile, one of our most iconic wildlife species, Boreal woodland caribou, has been listed as a species at risk. Scientists are rapidly increasing their knowledge about caribou and the causes for the decline. These include habitat loss due to human settlement, industrial uses such as forestry and mining, predation and natural population cycles. There is a clear recognition that this problem should be addressed.

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Why Premier McGuinty is Not in Thunder Bay Today for leadership debate – by Livio Di Matteo (September 23, 2011)

Livio Di Matteo is Professor of Economics at Lakehead University in Thunder Bay, Ontario. Visit his new Economics Blog “Northern Economist” at http://ldimatte.shawwebspace.ca/

Today is the NOMA (Northwestern Ontario Municipal Association) provincial party leaders debate in Thunder Bay between Tim Hudak and Andrea Horwath.  Premier McGuinty has declined to attend.  The premier apparently has a previous engagement and furthermore probably believes that as the premier for all Ontario, debates should be held with the entire province rather than a single region as the stage.  The outrage in the North has been palpable but in simple cost-benefit terms, if I were the premier, I would have made the same decision.

I probably also would have added that the debate seemed exclusionary and elitist given that according to my last look it required a 95 dollar conference admission fee.  But then what do I know, I’m an economist, not a political advisor. By the way, the debate is being webcast on the NOMA site . Web Coverage is also available on Netnewsledger.com.

For Dalton McGuinty, coming to Northern Ontario for a regional debate is fraught with high costs and little in the way of benefits.  This is a region – that usually tends to vote Liberal or NDP anyway.  It generally is not an arena for rational and open debate with a reasonable chance that you can change someone’s mind, but a highly partisan political herd environment.  In some ridings, the tradition is to vote Liberal and when you want to punish the Liberals you vote NDP. 

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