Credit Suisse’s top China economist Dong Tao was given a bodyguard to escort him to the airport in Brazil after his 2013 speech predicting the commodities super cycle was over sent the country’s mining stocks down 5 per cent. When he made a similar speech in Australia later that year, no one believed him.
Tao is back in Australia this week with similar bearish comments about Chinese demand for iron ore and coal. This time round, the market would be wise to pay more attention. Tao, one of the first to predict the end of the China-driven commodities super cycle, says Australia’s weakness is that it has relied too long on China’s insatiable appetite for steel and is not planning for the Asian nation’s transition to a consumption-led economy.
“It is obvious Australians can sell beef and wheat to the Chinese but it can do a hell of a lot more if people do their homework properly,” Tao, a managing director for Credit Suisse’s private banking operations in the region, says. Continue Reading →