MOSCOW — American farmers are getting an unexpected windfall from a contentious fight between Russia and Belarus, a former Soviet splinter state.
The subject of the fight is potash, a fertilizer. The score so far: One imprisoned Russian business executive, the disintegration of a once-effective cartel that kept world potash prices high and political tension between the two countries.
What is being called the “fertilizer war” is the latest of numerous trade and economic spats between Russia and Belarus, whose leaders, though presiding over similar autocratic political systems, do not get along personally, Russian political analysts say. Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, president of Belarus, and Vladimir V. Putin, president of Russia, by most accounts detest each another. Their feelings have spilled over into the fertilizer business.
The potash problem reached a peak on July 30, when Uralkali, the Russian potash company, announced it was withdrawing from an international cartel called the Belarusian Potash Company, or B.P.C., which was created to keep prices high.
Two marketing groups, B.P.C. in the former Soviet Union and Canpotex in Canada, sell nearly all the potash in the world. B.P.C. marketed fertilizer for Uralkali and Belaruskali, the Belarussian company, and Canpotex for three Canadian producers, the Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan, Mosaic and Agrium.
For years, potash companies have kept a thumb on the global trade of this critical plant nutrient, choking back supply to raise prices much as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries does with oil or De Beers with diamonds. The two cartels set nearly identical prices for potash worldwide, preventing farmers from benefiting from competition.
Uralkali said it was leaving B.P.C. because the Belarus president had been allowing fertilizer sales on the side. It predicted potash prices would drop about 25 percent, to $300 a ton, from around $400 a ton, when it left. The lower prices would hurt Russia, but they would hurt Belarus more.
Though Uralkali denies any direct link, this action came after years of efforts by Mr. Putin and the Kremlin to compel Belarus to sell strategic assets like oil refineries and natural gas pipelines, in exchange for subsidized energy supplies.
Mr. Lukashenko first agreed to sell a stake in Belaruskali, though the potash mine provides about 10 percent of the state tax revenue, but then balked. He said it was still for sale, but cited an exorbitantly high price, angering the Russian oligarchs who had been vying for it, and setting the stage for the breakup of the fertilizer cartel that followed.
The Belarussian government retaliated with what appeared to be a trap: the Belarussian prime minister invited the chief executive of Uralkali, Vladislav Baumgertner, to his country for talks on Aug. 26, and then arrested him at the airport. Uralkali’s chairman, Aleksandr Voloshin, and a part owner, Suleyman Kerimov, had also been invited, but only Mr. Baumgertner showed up.
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