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The NDP looked way ahead before voters went to the polls in British Columbia. Then it all changed. Why? One word: “Pipelines.” Or more precisely, two: “Kinder Morgan.”
Until two weeks ago it was the election of the NDP’s Adrian Dix to lose. Then he got greedy. Worried about an emerging Green threat, Mr. Dix sought to pre-empt the party by going greenier-than-thou, specifically by promising to ban significantly greater tanker traffic out of the port of Vancouver, which would doom the export of Alberta oil to the Pacific. This was a stunning turnabout on a clear promise to withhold judgement until the pipeline application had been filed with details made available.
His gamble failed and, more importantly for the future of the NDP, the Greens elected their first MLA. This will split the vote on the left for years to come. Even more portentous for this election, it was the beginning of a major switch in voting intentions – missed by the pollsters, but surely clear enough last night.
Why the significance of this change in policy? It crystallized a number of fears in the minds of voters. The Liberals had run a brutal campaign based on fear. Fear of what? Fear of the NDP economic record in the last government. Fear of Adrian Dix and what he might do.
This was all water off a duck’s back until Kinder Morgan. Mr, Dix ran a wonderfully smooth campaign based on “change.” He wore dark suits, conservative ties, black shoes. He told us we had nothing to fear – the NDP would just do a few moderate things, all “fully costed.”
But there were lots of hopes held out.
The Liberals, by contrast, were relentlessly on message. It was all about the economy, and the ability to pay the bills for health care and such. (Need resource development for that, doncha know?)
The Kinder Morgan flip-flop sent a message that the NDP would prefer the enviro-left to the development-right.
For the rest of this column, click here: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/commentary/bc-vote-shifted-on-one-word-pipelines/article11935260/#dashboard/follows/